Effect of Currency Exchange Rate on Aggregate Demand Shocks

Effect of Currency Exchange Rate on Aggregate Demand Shocks The exchange rate helps insulate the economy from aggregate demand shocks but it may need unsettlingly large changes to do so. This paper will examine the extent to which the exchange rate of a currency can be used to insulate an economy from aggregate demand shocks. First, it will define aggregate demand. Second, it will look at the monetary implications of the aggregate demand curve. Thirdly it will look define aggregate demand shocks and their effect on the aggregate demand curve. Fourthly, it will examine the ways in which the exchange rate can be used to reduce the impact of an aggregate demand shock. Finally, the question of whether using the exchange rate as a means of reducing the impact of an aggregate demand shock will be examined to determine whether it is a feasible strategy and whether the amounts required would be unsettling or not. Aggregate Demand (AD) refers to the total demand (d) in the economy (Y) for goods and services at a certain price level and at a certain time. AD in an economy is the sum of all consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G) and net exports (NX), where NX is equal to total exports (X) minus total imports (M). This can be represented mathematically as: [1] Aggregate demand is represented by the AD curve, which will show the relationship between price levels and the quantity that producers are willing to provide at that price. The relationship between AD and price is normally negative, showing that the less people are willing to pay, the less firms will produce or, from the other point of view, the less firms charge, the more people will buy. Below is a simple AD ‘curve’: In the chart above, the AD ‘curve’ is represented by a negatively sloped line. If prices (P) are lower, demand (Y) is greater. This negative relationship between price and demand has a number of important monetary consequences. It is necessary to briefly examine these prior to examining the relationship between exchange rates and aggregate demand.[2] Firstly, price levels (P) have a direct relationship to the real value of money. This is because as price levels (P) decrease, the purchasing power of consumers increases, meaning that the real value of the money they hold increases. Likewise, if P increases, consumers get less for the same money, or the real value of their money has decreased. Therefore, P and the real value of money are inversely related to each other.[3] Secondly, decreases in P cause an increase in the real interest rate. Interest rates, the price a borrower pays to borrow, or the return a lender receives for lending, can be expressed as a nominal or real rate. The nominal rate is the amount that must be paid for borrowing, expressed solely in money terms. The real interest rate is the nominal rate adjusted to take account of inflation (p). Thus real interest rates are expressed by the following formula: Thus, the higher p, the lower the real interest rate. Therefore, any increase in inflation will generally lead to pressure on the nominal interest rate to increase, to offset the deduction that will result from inflation. However, as we have seen above, price level decreases add to the real value of money, this is the same as saying that they decrease inflation. A decrease in inflation will mean that real interest rates are now higher than they were before the decrease in inflation. Therefore, price level decreases raise real interest rates and cause pressure for interest rates to be reduced.[4] Thirdly, lower prices increase the international competitiveness of the economy, and this should be reflected in increased international demand for the economy’s exports, causing a rise in net exports and thus in the aggregate demand. Now we will look at aggregate demand shocks. A demand shock is an event that is sudden and unexpected, and has the effect of measurably affecting the demand for goods and services in the economy, either positively or negatively, for a temporary period of time.[5] That is to say, the event shifts the AD curve, either to the right or to the left. A positive demand shock increases demand and shifts the curve to the right, resulting in higher prices. A negative demand shock decreases demand, shifts the curve to the left, and thus leads to a decrease in prices. Any number of events could constitute a demand shock, from an unexpected tax cut that increases consumer spending, to a dip in consumer confidence that decreases consumer spending. Likewise, an economic boom in for example China could result in higher exports to China, increasing demand. The danger of an aggregate demand shock is that they are a cause of uncertainty in the economy. Uncertainty makes it difficult for firms, government and consumers to budget properly and make the most effective investment and saving decisions. Both positive and negative demand shocks can be harmful, however, negative shocks are generally more feared. A negative demand shock, such as a drop in consumer spending, will lead to price decreases and the 2008 global financial crisis has been traced to such a demand shock in the US, which led to a fall in house prices, causing problems in the US subprime mortgage sector that then extended to the rest of the financial sector and wider economy. However, positive demand shocks, such as China’s increased demand for raw materials to fuel its economic growth have led to price increases in a number of important commodities that have also caused economic difficulties around the globe. Therefore, the consensus is that demand shocks of either ty pe are dangerous and any means of dampening them available to governments are desirable.[6] So could exchange rates be used to dampen a demand shock? A brief look at the relationship between monetary factors and the demand curve will demonstrate that exchange rates can be used to affect the demand curve. Therefore, in a positive demand shock, exchange rates could be used to decrease demand and in a negative demand shock, exchange rates could be used to increase demand. The relationship between two currencies may be nominal (e), or it may be real (RER). The real exchange rate takes into account variances in price levels in the two economies. P represents price in the domestic economy and P* the price in the foreign economy. [7] The exchange rate can be used to increase or decrease the price of goods in the economy relative to other economies. This will in turn impact on the international demand for a country’s products. This will impact on the net export figure (NX). A higher exchange rate will decrease international demand and thus will pressure a demand curve towards the left. This could be used to temper a positive demand shock that had increased demand for goods and pressured the curve towards the right. Likewise, a lower exchange rate will increase international demand, increasing exports and shifting the demand curve to the left. This could be used in the event of a negative demand shock to reduce the impact of the shock.[8] Basically, if any sector of demand changes rapidly, the government can seek to push exports in the opposite direction by making them more or less expensive. It is a simple idea and manipulating exports may be more desirable than manipulating other elements of demand, such as government spending, and may be easier to manipulate than, for example, consumer spending. Finally, the question must be asked, is the approach feasible? A central bank can quite easily impact on exchange rates by trading in its own currency. Buying will increase the exchange rate and selling will decrease the exchange rate. However, in order to move a currency value significantly, a central bank would be required to buy or sell a ‘significant’ amount of a currency. So what constitutes a ‘significant amount’ in the foreign exchange market? The global currency market is the largest and most liquid asset class in the world. The accepted size of this market in 2007 was generally put at about two trillion dollars a day. That would make it ten to fifteen times the size of the bond market and fifty times the size of the equities market. That means on a normal trading day, two trillion dollars passes hands. It would take an enormous amount of selling or buying by a central bank to make a dent in this market. A central bank that stepped in to buy or sell a couple of billion dollars worth of their currency would barely be noticed on the market, especially for the major currencies. And the question arises, how would a government fund such an intervention? It is also estimated that about 85 to 90 percent of the forex market is made up of speculators, meaning that attempts to manipulate exchange rates would be vulnerable to massive speculator bets which would have the power to undo any effect a government had on price movements.[9] Also, given the side effects of exchange rate changes, such as the relationship of the exchange rate to inflation, it is likely that the cost of moving the exchange rate, just to get the indirect benefit of altering net exports, would outweigh the benefit.[10] Therefore, it is concluded here that while exchange rates could be manipulated to insulate the economy from aggregate demand shocks, it amount of intervention required would be too large to justify the measure. Bibliography Dutt Ros, Aggregate demand shocks and economic growth, Struct.C.Ec.Dy 18 (2007) 75-99 Hargreaves-Heap, S.P., 1980. Choosing the wrong natural rate: accelerating inà ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å¡ation or decelerating employment and growth? Economic Journal 90, 239–253 Krugman Obstfeld, (2005) International Economics: Theory and Policy, 6th ed., Pearson: London Krugman, (1987) The narrowing band, the Dutch disease and the competitiveness consequences of Mrs. Thatcher, Notes of Trade in the Presence of Dynamic Scale Economies, Journal of Development Economics (Oct) 1987 p. 321 Krugman, (1998) The Age of Diminishing Expectation, MIT Press: Cambridge MA. Li, X.M., 2000. The Great leap Forward, economic reforms, and the unit root hypothesis: testing for breaking trend functions in China’s GDP data. Journal of Comparative Economics 28 (4), 814–827 Perron, P., 1989. The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica 57, 1361–1401 Romer, D., 1996. Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw Hill: New York. Romer, D., 2000. Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (Spring (2)), 149–169 Tobin, (1975) Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression, Am. Ec. Rev. 65, 195-202 Footnotes [1] Krugman Obstfeld, (2005) International Economics: Theory and Policy, 6th ed., Pearson: London [2] Krugman, (1998) The Age of Diminishing Expectation, MIT Press: Cambridge MA. [3] Dutt Ros, Aggregate demand shocks and economic growth, Struct.C.Ec.Dy 18 (2007) 75-99 [4] Krugman, (1987) The narrowing band, the Dutch disease and the competitiveness consequences of Mrs. Thatcher, Notes of Trade in the Presence of Dynamic Scale Economies, Journal of Development Economics (Oct) 1987 p. 321 [5] Tobin, (1975) Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression, Am. Ec. Rev. 65, 195-202 [6] Perron, P., 1989. The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica 57, 1361–1401 [7] Romer, D., 1996. Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw Hill: New York. [8] Romer, D., 2000. Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (Spring (2)), 149–169 [9] Li, X.M., 2000. The Great leap Forward, economic reforms, and the unit root hypothesis: testing for breaking trend functions in China’s GDP data. Journal of Comparative Economics 28 (4), 814–827 [10] Hargreaves-Heap, S.P., 1980. Choosing the wrong natural rate: accelerating inà ¯Ã‚ ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å¡ation or decelerating employment and growth? Economic Journal 90, 239–253

Confucius’ Social and Political Philosophy Essay

These days we are focusing on the topics of Confucius’ social and political philosophy. After finishing readings of this section, I would like to give reflections that mainly about Confucius’ view on governing and analyze the traditional culture and administration of our country. This essay will present my opinions about the merits and demerits of nowadays Chinese society’s government. First, let us deal with something that Confucius would say that Chinese society is currently doing well. According to Confucius, when the population is already numerous, make them wealthy will further improve them, and once they are wealthy, to instruct them will improve them further more.[1] I think this passage is suitable for making appraisals to nowadays Chinese society, because China has a large population and Chinese government is taking the road of common prosperity, these are very similar to passage’s description. The road of common prosperity means, for the purpose of enabling more and more people to become prosperous, some people are encouraged to become prosperous first, and at last all people will become prosperous. In my own understanding, I think this passage did not show that Confucius think wealth is more important than education. I think what Confucius want to said is, to make people wealth does not means just make people hold a lot of money, actually it means to let people live a peaceful and wealthy life, which is important to build a harmonious society. In addition, Chinese government also focuses on education, like the government increases the input of fund for rural compulsory education. In another passage, Confucius said â€Å"If common people’s need are satisfied, how could their lord be lacking? If the common people ‘s needs are not satisfied, how can their lord be content?† [2] These above passages show Confucius think it is important to satisfy common people’s needs, to let them live a wealthy life is necessary for reaching this goal, so he would be pleased to see Chinese government is paying efforts to improve people’s life and education. However , it is obvious that there is also something Chinese government is currently not doing well. In recent years, human flesh search engine became very popular. According to Wikipedia, human flesh search is a primarily Chinese internet phenomenon of massive researching  using Internet media such as blogs and forums. What made human flesh search became famous is misconduct in public office were exposed frequently through this way, this means the government is not honest enough. When this kind of things happened, it usually begin with some public servants wearing or using luxuries in public activities, then people think it is suspicious that public servants can afford those kind of luxuries, so they begin human flesh search to find out what happened. Confucius would be displeased, because the dishonest behaviors of some public servants are damaging government’s reputation. According to Confucius, he said he would sacrifice armament and food, but he though a state cannot stand once it has lost the confidence of the people.[3] That means Confucius regard the confidence of the people as the most important thing for a government. There is also an old saying that the lord is a boat and common people is water, means when a lord gain the supports from his people, it is like the water make the boat float over water-surface. And it works both ways. The correct attitude towards common people will gain people’s support, the bad reputation cause by dishonest governing will lose people’s support, it is no doubt that Chinese society is not doing well at this point. Confucius also said â€Å"Raise up the straight and apply them to the crooked, and the people will submit you. If you raise up the crooked and apply them to the straight, the people will never submit.† [4] When we understanding this passage and relating it to nowadays society, I think the â€Å"straight† can be understand as the public servant who work honesty and really care of common people’s interests. Likewise, â€Å"crooked† can be understand as the public servant who abuse power and damage common people’s interest. Chinese government did not build up a complete supervise system to punish the corrupt officials and it is what government should do in the future. The key to adopting Confucius’ philosophy centers on discarding the dross and selecting the essence. Chinese society is doing a good job in striking a balance between social improvement and inheritance on traditional culture, like the idea about building up a harmonious society. I think Chinese society should be as Confucian as it is today, because although we can carry forward things from tradition, we cannot carry forward everything from tradition, we need to keep pace with the times. Some of Confucius’ view on governing cannot accommodate itself to the Chinese society’s development. For example, Confucius said, let the lord be a true  lord, the ministers true ministers, the fathers tr ue fathers, and the sons true sons.[5] In this passage, Confucius was only requiring the lord to fulfill his obligation, but he did not require any democratic rights which are extremely important to nowadays society. In ancient China, People did not have their right to choose a lord they want, but nowadays people are supposed to have their democratic rights and choose the government they want. The Chinese society must comply with the world development trend. We should accept the good things showed in the passage, like the idea â€Å"to do what you are deemed to do†, but for governing, we are not supposed to take its idea like â€Å"people serve their lord and cannot against the lord† Chinese society does not take the wrong way and its governing is becoming more and more democratic, so it is Confucian enough and it just need to keep this style. In conclusion, there is still lot of things that we can use the experience of Confucius for reference, the view on governing is just a part of it, and Confuciusâ€℠¢ philosophy is always the important asset for us.

Boccaccio’s 4 Moral Stories Essay

â€Å"†¦that just as stupidity can often remove one from a state of happiness and place him in the greatest misery, so, too can intelligence rescue the wise man from the greatest of dangers and restore him to his secure state† (Boccaccio 93-94) so begins the story of Saladin, who from the beginnings of pecuniary humbleness becomes a sultan, but because of his many wars (with Christians and other religions) he is short on money and must borrow from the Jew Melchisedech. This Jew was known to not give loans readily and so Saladin meant to hoodwink the moneylender. To this effect Saladin presented this question: Which religion is the one true path; Christian, Jewish, or Saracen? It is with this question that the story of the three rings is given. The story is told by Melchisedech in order to give Saladin a moral lesson. The story tells of a king who must give his ring to the next heir, as is the kingdom’s tradition. This king however has three obedient sons whom the king has promised the ring to each, in secret. In order so that his promise is kept to each son, the king makes the ring into its likeness twice. Thus, when the king dies and each son claims the throne, they each get their ring to prove their position. However, the rings are made in such similar fashion that no one can tell them apart. So, the sons decide to leave it that way. So too does Saladin leave his question to the Jew unanswered and decides to be frank with the man and come right out and ask for the money. The lesson is that there is no one true religion, and furthermore, as a way of wit, Boccaccio is stating that one cannot fool a Jew. The Monk, The Abbot and the Farm Woman In this story, Boccaccio delivers the narrative through the voice of Dioneo, whose story involves lies in order to save ones own body from mortal punishment, in this case, a monk. The monk, whose youth and vigor are not daunted by fasts or prayers, gives into his carnal pleasure one afternoon with a farm girl. The Abbot happens to be walking by and hears the commotion the two of them are making in the monk’s room. Instead of opening the door upon them then, the Abbot decides to wait. In waiting, the monk comes up with his own scheme. The Abbot soon gets the key to the monks room and upon seeing the young woman there, decides to take advantage of the situation, reciting this idiom to himself, â€Å"†¦a sin that’s hidden is half forgiven† (Boccaccio 98). The monk is reprimanded but tells the Abbot that his sin is shared with the Abbot (this is discovered through the monk explaining about the position of the Abbot and the farm woman’s sexual positions). Thus, unwilling to go to prison himself, the Abbot excuses the monk from prison. The moral lesson in this story is along the same lines as not being the one to throw the first stone; meaning, everyone sins, therefore, is judgment is to be given to anyone; it must be given equally or not at all. In the case of the Abbot and the monk, the punishment for their sins is not given at all. The Story of Balducci and his Son Balducci is a man who has lost wife. In so doing, he has lost his love. She however has left him their two year old son.   Without the great love in his life, Balducci renounces the world and decides to dedicate his remaining years to God, and to do the same for his son. Thus, the two family members are in service of God in a little hut on the top of Mount Asinaio. Miscommunication, or misleading input and sin is the theme of this story. When the son of the story goes into Florence with his father, he only has eyes for women. He has seen nothing so beautiful or charming. He asks his father if he may bring a ‘gosling’ home and feed it (for the father has told the son that the name for women is gosling). The father is refusing the sons request, and realizes that nature is more powerful than intelligence. In this realization the father feels he has lost all of the years of upbringing with his son for nature, or carnal pleasure has won. It is at this point that the narrator interrupts the story and tells of how women, their beauty, company, and decorum are what he chiefly desires. It is these desire that he has measured life by. Thus, the moral of this short piece of fiction is to not judge someone else’s desires by one’s own grief. The father merely wanted to spare his son the grief of knowing the death of your loved one.   Thus, the moral of the story becomes more about personal happiness and how that cannot be judged by anyone. Thus, pleasure is to be had in life and that is what the son is arguing for with his father, he is arguing for the pleasures of life. The Story of Tancredi and Ghismunda Tancredi is the prince of Salerno and it is his story with which the Fourth Day begins. The love of Tancredi’s life is his daughter. The ominous story teller says that Tancredi’s life would have been easier had he not had her, but the story begins this way in order for the reader to judge the qualities of such a life. Tancredi’s daughter is so beloved by him, that she is made to stay by his side for an extended amount of time. Although she has had many suitors, she has not married and is well past the age to have done so. Finally, Tancredi has her marry Duke of Capua. Unfortunately the Duke dies and thus Tancredi’s daughter returns to her father. She quickly realized that her father had no further intentions of giving her away in marriage again and so set about finding a suitable lover. Guiscardo is the valet of the Prince and is the one Ghismunda falls in love with. He returns the Prince’s daughter’s affections.   However, they are soon found out by the Prince. He has Guiscardo imprisoned and beckons his daughter why she would do this; why she would ingratiate herself with someone who is not noble enough to fraternize with. Ghismunda’s defense lies with answering for herself by stating that she is his daughter and will continue to lover Guiscardo even in death. She argues that it is the disposition of the young to want these things; love and desire.   She implores her father’s sense of self in this argument. In essence Ghismunda cannot deny her nature, and her nature is to love in a carnal and spiritual way. Thus, it is not her fault and she further defends herself by saying that she chose Guiscardo over all of the others because of his behavior and his noble nature not his noble birth (of which cannot lay claim to having been born in poor circumstances). She soon kills herself as Guiscardo had been ordered strangled and his heart cut from his body. On her death bed her father comes to her too late and repents for his cruelty, it is in this moment that the moral lesson is learned. The lesson is this: Do not repent too late for your sins, nor should one be cruel toward someone who is merely acting in their nature (in this case Ghismunda acting in her nature to love). Thus, the sin is not carnal pleasure in the story but the misunderstanding or misguided love of a father for his daughter and his negligence of her needs through only seeing to his own needs. Therefore the moral of the story is also selfishness.

The Life and History of Socrates - 1440 Words

Socrates was one of the greatest philosophers of all time who questioned many individuals about their beliefs on ideas and thoughts that they take for granted by feeling that they know knowledge on a particular subject but utterly find out that they obtain no knowledge or wisdom on that subject that they felt so strongly about, which in turn, ended up being embarrassing to that individual. However Socrates feels that if he did not live and examined his life would have been pointless because he would not have learned of all the knowledge he did. Socrates was not like every other citizen in his time who did not examine life and world around him; he would explore his mind and find knowledge of the ideas, thoughts, and values in his time†¦show more content†¦Socrates liked questioning many individuals because it not only made the other person wiser of their ignorance on a topic, but Socrates was also able to learn more about people and their personal thoughts. Both Socrates a nd the particular person he was speaking to were both able to gain more knowledge after the conversation was done because both learned about the new thoughts and ideas that were brought up in the conversation. Socrates gained knowledge, and so did the other person, even though Socrates would point out their ignorance and leave them embarrassed. Overall, Socrates questioned everyone and every possible idea or thought to expand his knowledge and understand the actual reality around him. If I were to live a more examined life, I feel that I would have to change many aspects towards my personal thinking about ideas, thoughts, values, and my overall interpretation of the world we live in. I have to drop the aspect of that I feel that I have good knowledge about certain thoughts because I am a pretty stubborn person when it comes to arguing about a topic. 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